/ Notes / Financial Engineering
Random Walk with Jumps
Modeling Asset Prices with Jumps and Diffusion
Kumar Shantanu | 2022-05-20

The given jump diffusion model equation for Si+1S_{i+1} is:

Si+1=Si(1+(θFλidt)+(μ dt)+σϵidt)S_{i+1} = S_{i} \cdot (1 + (\theta F_{\lambda_{i}} dt) + (\mu  dt) + \sigma \cdot \epsilon_{i} \cdot \sqrt{dt})

Parameters

  1. SiS_i and Si+1S_{i+1}   

    • SiS_i: The value of the asset at time step ii.
    • Si+1S_{i+1}: The value of the asset at the next time step i+1i+1.
  2. θFλidt\theta F_{\lambda_{i}} dt:   

    • θ\theta: This is a parameter representing the jump size or the impact of jumps on the asset price. It scales the effect of the jump term.
    • FλiF_{\lambda_{i}}: This term represents the jump intensity or the frequency of jumps. It could be modeled by a Poisson process with rate λi\lambda_i.
    • dtdt: This represents the time increment between steps ii and i+1i+1. It is a small time interval.   This term accounts for sudden, discrete changes (jumps) in the asset price. Jumps might occur due to events like earnings announcements, economic news, or other unforeseen factors. The jump size is scaled by θ\theta, and the jump intensity is given by FλiF_{\lambda_{i}}, indicating how frequently these jumps occur.
  3. Drift Term μdt\mu dt:

    • μ\mu: The drift term, representing the expected return or average rate of change of the asset price per unit time.
    • dtdt: The time increment, as mentioned above.
      This term represents the deterministic trend of the asset price over time, considering the expected return. It ensures that the model accounts for the average growth rate of the asset.    
  4. Diffusion Term σϵidt\sigma \cdot \epsilon_i \cdot \sqrt{dt}

    • σ\sigma: The volatility of the asset, which measures the standard deviation of the asset's returns.
    • ϵi\epsilon_i: A standard normal random variable, typically ϵiN(0,1\epsilon_i \sim N(0,1. It introduces randomness or stochasticity to the model, capturing the unpredictable fluctuations in the asset price.
    • dt\sqrt{dt}: The square root of the time increment, which scales the random term appropriately for the continuous time model.     This term introduces continuous stochastic variability into the asset price. The standard normal variable ϵi\epsilon_i introduces randomness, while σ\sigma scales this randomness to match the observed volatility of the asset. The dt\sqrt{dt} ensures that the variance of the term scales appropriately with time.